Sozopol 3–1 Borislav 2009: Result & Stats

Sozopol

FT

3 – 1

Borislav 2009

3/23/2019

Third League - Southeast · Round 22Gradski stadion (Sozopol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sozopol68%

×Draw18%

Borislav 200913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SozopolExpected goals in this matchBorislav 2009

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.90

Sozopol

2.29

Borislav 2009

0.90

Sozopol creates 154% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 79 away

2.06

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Sozopol

2.06

Borislav 2009

0.91

allows per match

Sozopol

0.89

Borislav 2009

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Borislav 2009 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw

87%

Sozopol or Borislav 2009

82%

Draw or Borislav 2009

32%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+

45%

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals

90%

Sozopol 2+ goals

66%

Sozopol 3+ goals

40%

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

59%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

23%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)

84%

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.29

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sozopol scores more

68%

level

18%

Borislav 2009 scores more

13%

Sozopol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff