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Borislav 2009 vs Sozopol — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
2 – 1
Sozopol
Sozopol
9/8/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 5Stadion Borislav (Parvomay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200942%
×Draw26%
Sozopol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
1.44
Sozopol
1.21

Borislav 2009 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 83 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Sozopol
1.13

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Sozopol
1.29

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
68%
Borislav 2009 or Sozopol
74%
Draw or Sozopol
58%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
20%
Sozopol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
76%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
42%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
18%
Sozopol 1+ goals
70%
Sozopol 2+ goals
34%
Sozopol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
57%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Sozopol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Sozopol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sozopol attack 1.13 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
42%
level
26%
Sozopol scores more
32%

Borislav 2009 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Borislav 2009 2–1 Sozopol

Borislav 2009 beat Sozopol 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav (Parvomay).