Southside Eagles 1–3 Capalaba: Result & Stats

Southside Eagles

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Capalaba

5/28/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 11Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Southside Eagles41%

×Draw22%

Capalaba37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southside EaglesExpected goals in this matchCapalaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.81

Southside Eagles

1.92

Capalaba

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 42 away

1.58

creates per match

1.74

1.87

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Southside Eagles

1.58

Capalaba

1.74

allows per match

Southside Eagles

1.87

Capalaba

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Capalaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

Capalaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw

63%

Southside Eagles or Capalaba

78%

Draw or Capalaba

59%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

22%

Capalaba wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

85%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

57%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

30%

Capalaba 1+ goals

84%

Capalaba 2+ goals

54%

Capalaba 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

53%

Capalaba (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

Capalaba away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + Capalaba defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.92

Capalaba attack 1.74 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southside Eagles scores more

41%

level

22%

Capalaba scores more

37%

Southside Eagles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Southside Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff