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Capalaba vs Southside Eagles — Queensland Premier League 2026

Capalaba
Capalaba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Southside Eagles
Southside Eagles
7/19/2025Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 18Max Haynes Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Capalaba36%
×Draw22%
Southside Eagles42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capalaba
1.80
Southside Eagles
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 53 away

creates per match

Capalaba
1.40
Southside Eagles
1.26

allows per match

Capalaba
2.62
Southside Eagles
2.21

finishing

Capalaba+0.00on par
Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capalaba ↓

Southside Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Capalaba or draw
58%
Capalaba or Southside Eagles
78%
Draw or Southside Eagles
64%

Winning margin

Capalaba wins by 2+
19%
Southside Eagles wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Capalaba 1+ goals
83%
Capalaba 2+ goals
54%
Capalaba 3+ goals
27%
Southside Eagles 1+ goals
86%
Southside Eagles 2+ goals
58%
Southside Eagles 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Capalaba (draw refunded)
47%
Southside Eagles (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capalaba at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.62 · 42 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capalaba attack 1.40 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.80

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Capalaba defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Capalaba scores more
36%
level
22%
Southside Eagles scores more
42%

Southside Eagles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Southside Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capalaba vs Southside Eagles

Capalaba beat Southside Eagles 1-0 in Queensland Premier League on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Max Haynes Field in Redland.