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Souths United vs SC Wanderers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Souths United
Souths United
FT
3 – 2
SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
5/15/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 8Wakerley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Souths United25%
×Draw20%
SC Wanderers55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Souths United
1.46
SC Wanderers
2.25

SC Wanderers creates 54% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 40 away

creates per match

Souths United
1.30
SC Wanderers
1.50

allows per match

Souths United
3.00
SC Wanderers
1.63

finishing

Souths United+0.00on par
SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Souths United ↓

SC Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Souths United or draw
45%
Souths United or SC Wanderers
80%
Draw or SC Wanderers
75%

Winning margin

Souths United wins by 2+
11%
SC Wanderers wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Souths United 1+ goals
77%
Souths United 2+ goals
43%
Souths United 3+ goals
18%
SC Wanderers 1+ goals
89%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
65%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Souths United (draw refunded)
31%
SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Souths United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Souths United attack 1.30 + SC Wanderers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

SC Wanderers attack 1.50 + Souths United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Souths United scores more
25%
level
20%
SC Wanderers scores more
55%

SC Wanderers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Souths United vs SC Wanderers

Souths United beat SC Wanderers 3-2 in Queensland Premier League on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Wakerley Park in Brisbane.