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SC Wanderers vs Souths United — Queensland Premier League 2026

SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
FT
2 – 1
Souths United
Souths United
9/19/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 19Kawana SC Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SC Wanderers46%
×Draw21%
Souths United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wanderers
2.01
Souths United
1.69

SC Wanderers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 10 away

creates per match

SC Wanderers
1.63
Souths United
1.50

allows per match

SC Wanderers
1.88
Souths United
2.40

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par
Souths United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Souths United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw
67%
SC Wanderers or Souths United
79%
Draw or Souths United
54%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+
26%
Souths United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals
87%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
59%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
32%
Souths United 1+ goals
82%
Souths United 2+ goals
50%
Souths United 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
58%
Souths United (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 40 matches

Souths United away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.63 + Souths United defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Souths United attack 1.50 + SC Wanderers defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SC Wanderers scores more
46%
level
21%
Souths United scores more
33%

SC Wanderers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: SC Wanderers 2–1 Souths United

SC Wanderers beat Souths United 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Kawana SC Field 1 in Kawana Waters.