Southport 2–2 Oxford City: Result & Stats

Southport

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oxford City

W. Russ 70'

D. Lloyd-McGoldrick 60'

J. Carbon 77'

J. Jones 55'

4/5/2025

League #50 · North - 42The BIG HELP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Southport37%

×Draw22%

Oxford City41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthportExpected goals in this matchOxford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.81

Southport

1.71

Oxford City

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 4 away

1.42

creates per match

2.00

1.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Southport

1.42

Oxford City

2.00

allows per match

Southport

1.63

Oxford City

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southport+0.00on par

Oxford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Oxford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Southport or draw

59%

Southport or Oxford City

78%

Draw or Oxford City

63%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+

19%

Oxford City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals

82%

Southport 2+ goals

51%

Southport 3+ goals

24%

Oxford City 1+ goals

84%

Oxford City 2+ goals

54%

Oxford City 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)

47%

Oxford City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Oxford City away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + Oxford City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oxford City attack 2.00 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southport scores more

37%

level

22%

Oxford City scores more

41%

Oxford City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oxford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

60'

67'

70'

74'

77'

80'

F. Heath← O. Lunt

88'

J. Proctor← W. Russ

Southport

Oxford

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Russ

Manager: D. Morgan

67'▲L. Burgess←▼D. Angus

80'▲F. Heath←▼O. Lunt

88'▲J. Proctor←▼W. Russ

Southport substitutes

BurgessHeathProctorPhilliskirkQuansah

Manager: R. Jenkins

74'▲J. Carbon←▼T. Scott

Oxford City substitutes

CarbonPotterEzennolimPutmanRoddy

League #50: Southport 2–2 Oxford City

Southport and Oxford City drew 2-2 in League #50 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Jones (55'), D. Lloyd-McGoldrick (60'), W. Russ (70'), J. Carbon (77').

The match was played at The BIG HELP Stadium in Southport, Merseyside.

Southport vs Oxford City — League #50 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #50: Southport 2–2 Oxford City