Oxford City 1–1 Southport: Result & Stats

Oxford City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Southport

J. Roddy 50'

D. Philliskirk 62'

11/2/2024

League #50 · North - 15RAW Charging Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oxford City40%

×Draw25%

Southport34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford CityExpected goals in this matchSouthport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.32

Oxford City

1.45

Southport

1.32

Oxford City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 34 away

1.25

creates per match

1.15

1.50

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Oxford City

1.25

Southport

1.15

allows per match

Oxford City

1.50

Southport

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford City+0.00on par

Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford City ↓

Southport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oxford City or draw

66%

Oxford City or Southport

75%

Draw or Southport

60%

Winning margin

Oxford City wins by 2+

19%

Southport wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oxford City 1+ goals

77%

Oxford City 2+ goals

42%

Oxford City 3+ goals

18%

Southport 1+ goals

73%

Southport 2+ goals

38%

Southport 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Oxford City (draw refunded)

54%

Southport (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford City attack 1.25 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Southport attack 1.15 + Oxford City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oxford City scores more

40%

level

25%

Southport scores more

34%

Oxford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oxford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

J. Roddy

62'

D. Philliskirk

81'

D. Angus← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

81'

D. Morgan← J. Williams

Oxford

Southport

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Jenkins

Oxford City substitutes

KpekawaSiddikMcConnellWalshCroker

Manager: J. Bentley

81'▲D. Angus←▼D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

81'▲D. Morgan←▼J. Williams

Southport substitutes

AngusMorganHeathStaffordQuansah

League #50: Oxford City 1–1 Southport

Oxford City and Southport drew 1-1 in League #50 on November 2, 2024.

Goals: J. Roddy (50'), D. Philliskirk (62').

The match was played at RAW Charging Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.

Oxford City vs Southport — League #50 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #50: Oxford City 1–1 Southport