Southport 1–2 Macclesfield: Result & Stats

Southport

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Macclesfield

4/4/2017

League #43 · Round 50Haig Avenue (Southport, Merseyside)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southport48%

×Draw21%

Macclesfield31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthportExpected goals in this matchMacclesfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.67

Southport

2.12

Macclesfield

1.67

Southport creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.57

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Southport

1.57

Macclesfield

1.33

allows per match

Southport

2.00

Macclesfield

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southport+0.00on par

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Macclesfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Southport or draw

69%

Southport or Macclesfield

79%

Draw or Macclesfield

52%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+

28%

Macclesfield wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals

88%

Southport 2+ goals

62%

Southport 3+ goals

35%

Macclesfield 1+ goals

81%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

50%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)

61%

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.57 + Macclesfield defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Macclesfield attack 1.33 + Southport defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Southport scores more

48%

level

21%

Macclesfield scores more

31%

Southport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Southport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff