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Macclesfield vs Southport — League #50 2026

Macclesfield
Macclesfield
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Southport
Southport
L. Fensome 83'
I. Buckley 54'
D. Lloyd 64'
4/21/2026League #50League #50 · North - 41The Leasing.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Macclesfield55%
×Draw23%
Southport22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macclesfield
1.82
Southport
1.07

Macclesfield creates 70% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 34 away

creates per match

Macclesfield
2.00
Southport
1.15

allows per match

Macclesfield
1.00
Southport
1.65

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par
Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

Southport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw
78%
Macclesfield or Southport
77%
Draw or Southport
45%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+
31%
Southport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals
84%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
54%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
27%
Southport 1+ goals
66%
Southport 2+ goals
29%
Southport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)
71%
Southport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 2.00 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Southport attack 1.15 + Macclesfield defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Macclesfield scores more
55%
level
23%
Southport scores more
22%

Macclesfield at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
I. Buckley
64'
D. Lloyd
83'
L. Fensome

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: Macclesfield 2–1 Southport

Macclesfield beat Southport 2-1 in League #50 on April 21, 2026.

Goals: I. Buckley (54'), D. Lloyd (64'), L. Fensome (83').

The match was played at The Leasing.com Stadium in Macclesfield, Cheshire.