Southern Soccer Academy 5–0 North Alabama

Southern Soccer Academy

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

North Alabama

7/11/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 17Marathon Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Southern Soccer Academy82%

×Draw11%

North Alabama7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southern Soccer AcademyExpected goals in this matchNorth Alabama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.20

0.84

Southern Soccer Academy

3.20

North Alabama

0.84

Southern Soccer Academy creates 281% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

0.17

1.51

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

Southern Soccer Academy

1.57

North Alabama

0.17

allows per match

Southern Soccer Academy

1.51

North Alabama

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par

North Alabama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern Soccer Academy ↓

North Alabama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Southern Soccer Academy or draw

93%

Southern Soccer Academy or North Alabama

89%

Draw or North Alabama

18%

Winning margin

Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+

64%

North Alabama wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals

96%

Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals

82%

Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals

60%

North Alabama 1+ goals

57%

North Alabama 2+ goals

21%

North Alabama 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)

92%

North Alabama (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern Soccer Academy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

North Alabama away — creates 0.17, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.57 + North Alabama defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.20

North Alabama attack 0.17 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Southern Soccer Academy scores more

82%

level

11%

North Alabama scores more

7%

Southern Soccer Academy at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Southern Soccer Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff