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North Alabama vs Southern Soccer Academy — USL League Two 2018

North Alabama
North Alabama
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
5/18/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 2Sparkman High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

North Alabama14%
×Draw16%
Southern Soccer Academy70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Alabama
1.18
Southern Soccer Academy
2.76

Southern Soccer Academy creates 134% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 37 away

creates per match

North Alabama
0.50
Southern Soccer Academy
1.35

allows per match

North Alabama
4.17
Southern Soccer Academy
1.86

finishing

North Alabama+0.00on par
Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Alabama ↓

Southern Soccer Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

North Alabama or draw
30%
North Alabama or Southern Soccer Academy
84%
Draw or Southern Soccer Academy
86%

Winning margin

North Alabama wins by 2+
5%
Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

North Alabama 1+ goals
69%
North Alabama 2+ goals
33%
North Alabama 3+ goals
12%
Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
94%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
76%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

North Alabama (draw refunded)
17%
Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Alabama at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

Southern Soccer Academy away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Alabama attack 0.50 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.35 + North Alabama defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

North Alabama scores more
14%
level
16%
Southern Soccer Academy scores more
70%

Southern Soccer Academy at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Southern Soccer Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: North Alabama 0–4 Southern Soccer Academy

Southern Soccer Academy beat North Alabama 4-0 in USL League Two on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sparkman High School Stadium in Harvest, Alabama.