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Southern Soccer Academy vs Athens United — USL League Two 2026

Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Athens United
Athens United
6/22/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 11Marathon Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Southern Soccer Academy71%
×Draw18%
Athens United11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southern Soccer Academy
2.19
Athens United
0.73

Southern Soccer Academy creates 200% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Southern Soccer Academy
2.38
Athens United
0.00

allows per match

Southern Soccer Academy
1.46
Athens United
2.00

finishing

Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par
Athens United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern Soccer Academy ↓

Athens United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Southern Soccer Academy or draw
89%
Southern Soccer Academy or Athens United
82%
Draw or Athens United
29%

Winning margin

Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
46%
Athens United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
89%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
64%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
37%
Athens United 1+ goals
52%
Athens United 2+ goals
17%
Athens United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
86%
Athens United (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern Soccer Academy at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Athens United away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern Soccer Academy attack 2.38 + Athens United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Athens United attack 0.00 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Southern Soccer Academy scores more
71%
level
18%
Athens United scores more
11%

Southern Soccer Academy at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Southern Soccer Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southern Soccer Academy vs Athens United

Southern Soccer Academy beat Athens United 1-0 in USL League Two on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Marathon Soccer Park in Austell.