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Athens United vs Southern Soccer Academy — USL League Two 2026

Athens United
Athens United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
6/29/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 13Clarke Central Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Athens United19%
×Draw23%
Southern Soccer Academy58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athens United
0.92
Southern Soccer Academy
1.79

Southern Soccer Academy creates 95% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Athens United
0.50
Southern Soccer Academy
1.58

allows per match

Athens United
2.00
Southern Soccer Academy
1.33

finishing

Athens United+0.00on par
Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athens United ↓

Southern Soccer Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Athens United or draw
42%
Athens United or Southern Soccer Academy
77%
Draw or Southern Soccer Academy
81%

Winning margin

Athens United wins by 2+
6%
Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Athens United 1+ goals
60%
Athens United 2+ goals
23%
Athens United 3+ goals
7%
Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
83%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
53%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Athens United (draw refunded)
25%
Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athens United at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Southern Soccer Academy away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athens United attack 0.50 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.58 + Athens United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Athens United scores more
19%
level
23%
Southern Soccer Academy scores more
58%

Southern Soccer Academy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Southern Soccer Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Athens United 1–3 Southern Soccer Academy

Southern Soccer Academy beat Athens United 3-1 in USL League Two on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Clarke Central Football Stadium in Athens, Georgia.