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Southern City vs Paro — Premier League 2023

Southern City
Southern City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Paro
Paro
5/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonGelephu Public Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Southern City9%
×Draw14%
Paro77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southern City
0.94
Paro
2.94

Paro creates 213% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

creates per match

Southern City
1.13
Paro
3.88

allows per match

Southern City
2.00
Paro
0.75

finishing

Southern City+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern City ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Southern City or draw
23%
Southern City or Paro
86%
Draw or Paro
91%

Winning margin

Southern City wins by 2+
3%
Paro wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Southern City 1+ goals
61%
Southern City 2+ goals
24%
Southern City 3+ goals
7%
Paro 1+ goals
95%
Paro 2+ goals
79%
Paro 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Southern City (draw refunded)
11%
Paro (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern City attack 1.13 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Paro attack 3.88 + Southern City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Southern City scores more
9%
level
14%
Paro scores more
77%

Paro at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southern City vs Paro

Paro beat Southern City 4-1 in Premier League on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Gelephu Public Ground in Gelephu.