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Paro vs Southern City — Premier League 2023

Paro
Paro
FT
20 – 1
HT: 9 – 0
Southern City
Southern City
9/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonWoochu Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paro93%
×Draw5%
Southern City2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paro
4.58
Southern City
0.73

Paro creates 527% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Paro
4.71
Southern City
0.44

allows per match

Paro
1.03
Southern City
4.44

finishing

Paro+0.00on par
Southern City+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paro ↓

Southern City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Paro or draw
98%
Paro or Southern City
95%
Draw or Southern City
7%

Winning margin

Paro wins by 2+
82%
Southern City wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Paro 1+ goals
99%
Paro 2+ goals
93%
Paro 3+ goals
80%
Southern City 1+ goals
52%
Southern City 2+ goals
17%
Southern City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paro (draw refunded)
98%
Southern City (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paro at home — creates 4.71, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Southern City away — creates 0.44, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paro attack 4.71 + Southern City defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 4.58

Southern City attack 0.44 + Paro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Paro scores more
93%
level
5%
Southern City scores more
2%

Paro at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paro vs Southern City

Paro beat Southern City 20-1 in Premier League on September 1, 2025.

The match was played at Woochu Sports Arena in Paro.