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Southern City vs BFF Academy U20 — Premier League 2023

Southern City
Southern City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
BFF Academy U20
BFF Academy U20
9/30/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonGelephu Public Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Southern City30%
×Draw21%
BFF Academy U2049%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southern City
1.68
BFF Academy U20
2.17

BFF Academy U20 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Southern City
1.13
BFF Academy U20
2.33

allows per match

Southern City
2.00
BFF Academy U20
2.22

finishing

Southern City+0.00on par
BFF Academy U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern City ↓

BFF Academy U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Southern City or draw
51%
Southern City or BFF Academy U20
79%
Draw or BFF Academy U20
70%

Winning margin

Southern City wins by 2+
15%
BFF Academy U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Southern City 1+ goals
81%
Southern City 2+ goals
50%
Southern City 3+ goals
24%
BFF Academy U20 1+ goals
89%
BFF Academy U20 2+ goals
64%
BFF Academy U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Southern City (draw refunded)
38%
BFF Academy U20 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

BFF Academy U20 away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern City attack 1.13 + BFF Academy U20 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.68

BFF Academy U20 attack 2.33 + Southern City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Southern City scores more
30%
level
21%
BFF Academy U20 scores more
49%

BFF Academy U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BFF Academy U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southern City vs BFF Academy U20

BFF Academy U20 beat Southern City 3-1 in Premier League on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Gelephu Public Ground in Gelephu.