BFF Academy U20 1–0 Southern City: Result & Stats

BFF Academy U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southern City

6/24/2025

Premier League · Regular SeasonChanglimithang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

BFF Academy U2079%

×Draw12%

Southern City9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BFF Academy U20Expected goals in this matchSouthern City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.28

1.05

BFF Academy U20

3.28

Southern City

1.05

BFF Academy U20 creates 212% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.11

creates per match

0.44

1.67

allows per match

4.44

creates per match

BFF Academy U20

2.11

Southern City

0.44

allows per match

BFF Academy U20

1.67

Southern City

4.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BFF Academy U20+0.00on par

Southern City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFF Academy U20 ↓

Southern City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

BFF Academy U20 or draw

91%

BFF Academy U20 or Southern City

88%

Draw or Southern City

21%

Winning margin

BFF Academy U20 wins by 2+

61%

Southern City wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

BFF Academy U20 1+ goals

96%

BFF Academy U20 2+ goals

83%

BFF Academy U20 3+ goals

62%

Southern City 1+ goals

65%

Southern City 2+ goals

28%

Southern City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

BFF Academy U20 (draw refunded)

90%

Southern City (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFF Academy U20 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Southern City away — creates 0.44, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFF Academy U20 attack 2.11 + Southern City defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 3.28

Southern City attack 0.44 + BFF Academy U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

BFF Academy U20 scores more

79%

level

12%

Southern City scores more

9%

BFF Academy U20 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "BFF Academy U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff