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Southend vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
J. Olayinka 80'
12/12/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Southend47%
×Draw27%
Scunthorpe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.41
Scunthorpe
0.98

Southend creates 44% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Southend
0.94
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Southend
1.13
Scunthorpe
1.88

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Southend or draw
74%
Southend or Scunthorpe
73%
Draw or Scunthorpe
53%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
23%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
76%
Southend 2+ goals
41%
Southend 3+ goals
17%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
62%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
26%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
64%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.94 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Southend defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southend scores more
47%
level
27%
Scunthorpe scores more
26%

Southend at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. DiengSouthendSouthend · D
7.5

Match Events

57'
D. Green← A. Gilliead
62'
K. Taylor← S. Akinola
78'
T. Egbri← S. Hart
78'
J. Taylor← J. McAtee
78'
A. Jarvis← R. Loft
80'
J. Olayinka↳ J. Demetriou
85'
J. Hallam← L. Spence
88'
B. Goodship← J. Olayinka
88'
R. Taylor← E. Acquah

Possession

46%Southend

Shots

7Southend

Pass accuracy

48%Southend

Statistics

SouthendScunthorpe
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots9
2Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots9
3On Target0
3Off Target6
1Blocked3
3Inside Box6
4Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
289Total Passes328
167Accurate Passes211
58%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls14
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Southend vs Scunthorpe

Southend beat Scunthorpe 1-0 in League Two on December 12, 2020.

Goals: J. Olayinka (80').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea, Essex.