Scunthorpe 1–1 Southend: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Southend

A. Beestin 90'

A. Nathaniel-George 80' (pen)

3/20/2021

League Two · Round 37Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Scunthorpe37%

×Draw28%

Southend35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Scunthorpe

1.16

Southend

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 31 away

0.89

creates per match

0.90

1.35

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Southend

0.90

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Southend

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

65%

Scunthorpe or Southend

72%

Draw or Southend

63%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

15%

Southend wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

69%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

32%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Southend 1+ goals

68%

Southend 2+ goals

31%

Southend 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

51%

Southend (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Southend away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Southend defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Southend attack 0.90 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

37%

level

28%

Southend scores more

35%

Scunthorpe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Beestin

Scunthorpe · M

7.3

Match Events

61'

A. Nathaniel-George← R. Holmes

61'

K. Taylor← A. McCormack

62'

Sam Hart

63'

Abobaker Eisa← R. Loft

67'

Timothée Dieng

71'

J. McAtee← K. van Veen

71'

B. Goodship← S. Akinola

75'

Jem Karacan

78'

Jordan Clarke

80'

A. Nathaniel-GeorgePenalty

83'

J. Mellis← R. Hackett-Fairchild

88'

M. Hippolyte← D. Green

88'

T. Howe← J. Rowe

90'

A. Beestin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeSouthend

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots11

2Corners1

8Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots11

1On Target2

5Off Target5

1Blocked4

3Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

307Total Passes404

151Accurate Passes253

49%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides5