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Southend vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rochdale
Rochdale
C. Camps 77'
A. Morley 37'
I. Henderson 35'
8/31/2019League OneLeague One · Round 6Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Southend37%
×Draw24%
Rochdale40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.56
Rochdale
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Southend
1.27
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Southend
1.87
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Southend or draw
60%
Southend or Rochdale
76%
Draw or Rochdale
63%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
18%
Rochdale wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
79%
Southend 2+ goals
46%
Southend 3+ goals
21%
Rochdale 1+ goals
80%
Rochdale 2+ goals
48%
Rochdale 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
48%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southend scores more
37%
level
24%
Rochdale scores more
40%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. CampsRochdaleRochdale · F
8.7

Match Events

16'
Luke Hyam
29'
Ethan Hamilton
35'
I. Henderson↳ J. Keohane
37'
A. Morley↳ C. Camps
43'
Jordan Williams
46'
L. Ndukwu← E. Hamilton
52'
R. Kiernan← J. White
71'
C. Kelman← B. Goodship
74'
O. Rathbone← R. Pyke
77'
C. Camps↳ R. Norrington-Davies
81'
M. Done← I. Henderson
88'
J. Ryan← C. Camps

Possession

38%Southend

Shots

9Southend

Pass accuracy

46%Southend

Statistics

SouthendRochdale
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots12
3Corners4
13Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots12
2On Target9
4Off Target2
3Blocked1
4Inside Box8
5Outside Box4
Passing
38%Possession62%
315Total Passes510
224Accurate Passes429
71%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League One: Southend 0–3 Rochdale

Rochdale beat Southend 3-0 in League One on August 31, 2019.

Goals: I. Henderson (35'), A. Morley (37'), C. Camps (77').

Rochdale controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea, Essex.