Rochdale 1–0 Southend: Result & Stats | League One

Rochdale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southend

I. Henderson 53'

4/27/2019

League One · Round 45Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rochdale46%

×Draw25%

Southend30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.25

Rochdale

1.61

Southend

1.25

Rochdale creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

1.33

creates per match

0.95

1.54

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Southend

0.95

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Southend

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

70%

Rochdale or Southend

75%

Draw or Southend

54%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

23%

Southend wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

80%

Rochdale 2+ goals

48%

Rochdale 3+ goals

22%

Southend 1+ goals

71%

Southend 2+ goals

36%

Southend 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

61%

Southend (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Southend away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Southend defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Southend attack 0.95 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rochdale scores more

46%

level

25%

Southend scores more

30%

Rochdale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

T. Dieng← L. Hyam

38'

Jordan Williams

53'

I. Henderson

60'

M. Kightly← T. Dieng

60'

S. McLaughlin← S. Hendrie

63'

M. Done← R. Pyke

72'

S. Dooley← M. Williams

87'

C. Andrew← I. Henderson

Rochdale

Southend

1

6

48

15

32

▼

23

2

18

4

▼

10

30

1

4

6

8

▼

39

13

10

27

18

40

⚽

▼

Henderson

30

▼

Pyke

Manager: B. Barry-Murphy

63'▲M. Done←▼R. Pyke

72'▲S. Dooley←▼M. Williams

87'▲C. Andrew←▼I. Henderson

Rochdale substitutes

16Done7Dooley9Andrew3Ntlhe5Delaney25Adshead31Wade

Manager: K. Bond

14'▲T. Dieng←▼L. Hyam

60'▲M. Kightly←▼T. Dieng

60'▲S. McLaughlin←▼S. Hendrie

Southend substitutes

8Dieng7Kightly11McLaughlin13Bishop16Yearwood34Kelman42Hart

League One: Rochdale 1–0 Southend

Rochdale beat Southend 1-0 in League One on April 27, 2019.

Goals: I. Henderson (53').

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale.

Rochdale vs Southend — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Rochdale 1–0 Southend