Southend 2–2 Northampton: Result & Stats

Southend

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Northampton

9/16/2017

League One · Round 8Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Southend40%

×Draw25%

Northampton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.41

Southend

1.53

Northampton

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 99 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

1.87

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Southend

1.27

Northampton

0.94

allows per match

Southend

1.87

Northampton

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Southend or draw

65%

Southend or Northampton

75%

Draw or Northampton

60%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

20%

Northampton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

78%

Southend 2+ goals

45%

Southend 3+ goals

20%

Northampton 1+ goals

76%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

54%

Northampton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Northampton attack 0.94 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southend scores more

40%

level

25%

Northampton scores more

35%

Southend at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff