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Northampton vs Southend — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Southend
Southend
9/24/2016League OneLeague One · Round 9Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northampton47%
×Draw26%
Southend27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.50
Southend
1.06

Northampton creates 42% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 44 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.11
Southend
0.95

allows per match

Northampton
1.18
Southend
1.89

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Southend →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
73%
Northampton or Southend
74%
Draw or Southend
53%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
24%
Southend wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
78%
Northampton 2+ goals
44%
Northampton 3+ goals
19%
Southend 1+ goals
65%
Southend 2+ goals
29%
Southend 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
64%
Southend (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Southend away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.11 + Southend defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Southend attack 0.95 + Northampton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Northampton scores more
47%
level
26%
Southend scores more
27%

Northampton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Northampton 4–0 Southend

Northampton beat Southend 4-0 in League One on September 24, 2016.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton.