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Southend vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
E. Bwomono 90+6'
C. Kelman 63'
H. Anderson 89'
2/1/2020League OneLeague One · Round 31Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Southend31%
×Draw25%
Lincoln44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.25
Lincoln
1.56

Lincoln creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 156 away

creates per match

Southend
1.27
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Southend
1.87
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Southend or draw
56%
Southend or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
69%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
13%
Lincoln wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
71%
Southend 2+ goals
36%
Southend 3+ goals
13%
Lincoln 1+ goals
79%
Lincoln 2+ goals
46%
Lincoln 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
41%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Southend scores more
31%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
44%

Lincoln at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
S. McLaughlinSouthendSouthend · M
7.6

Match Events

6'
Harry Phillips
45'
Mark Milligan
46'
H. Anderson← Z. Elbouzedi
57'
B. Goodship← J. White
63'
C. Kelman
67'
Tyreece John-Jules
72'
J. Hesketh← T. Hopper
80'
M. Mitchell-Nelson← H. Phillips
83'
Jason Dimitriou
86'
J. Payne← A. Edun
89'
H. Anderson↳ C. Bolger
90'
Cian Bolger
90+2'
K. Coker← I. Hutchinson
90+6'
E. Bwomono↳ S. McLaughlin

Possession

49%Southend

Shots

21Southend

Pass accuracy

51%Southend

Statistics

SouthendLincoln
Overview
49%Possession51%
21Total Shots8
4Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots8
7On Target5
10Off Target3
4Blocked0
12Inside Box5
9Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
392Total Passes400
275Accurate Passes271
70%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League One: Southend 2–1 Lincoln

Southend beat Lincoln 2-1 in League One on February 1, 2020.

Goals: C. Kelman (63'), H. Anderson (89'), E. Bwomono (90+6').

Lincoln controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 21.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea, Essex.