Lincoln 4–0 Southend: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southend

Bruno Andrade 81'

T. Walker 48' (pen)

H. Toffolo 40'

J. Shackell 31'

8/17/2019

League One · Round 3Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lincoln54%

×Draw24%

Southend22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.97

Lincoln

1.69

Southend

0.97

Lincoln creates 74% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 44 away

1.49

creates per match

0.95

0.99

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Southend

0.95

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Southend

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

78%

Lincoln or Southend

76%

Draw or Southend

46%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

30%

Southend wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

82%

Lincoln 2+ goals

50%

Lincoln 3+ goals

24%

Southend 1+ goals

62%

Southend 2+ goals

25%

Southend 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

71%

Southend (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Southend away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Southend defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Southend attack 0.95 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lincoln scores more

54%

level

24%

Southend scores more

22%

Lincoln at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

H. Toffolo

Lincoln · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

J. Shackell↳ J. Grant

40'

H. Toffolo↳ J. Payne

45'

Elvis Bwomono

46'

S. Humphrys← S. Mantom

46'

E. Hamilton← C. Kelman

47'

Joe Shaughnessy

48'

T. WalkerPenalty

61'

Mark Milligan

63'

M. O'Connor← M. Bostwick

65'

L. Ndukwu← S. McLaughlin

67'

J. Akinde← T. Walker

73'

Bruno Andrade← H. Anderson

81'

Bruno Andrade↳ J. Akinde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnSouthend

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots10

4Corners3

2Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target3

5Off Target3

4Blocked4

10Inside Box1

4Outside Box9

Passing

51%Possession49%

441Total Passes403

326Accurate Passes306

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

2Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2