Southend 1–7 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League One

Southend

FT

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 2

Doncaster

10/22/2019

League One · Round 15Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Southend36%

×Draw25%

Doncaster39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.51

Southend

1.43

Doncaster

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 108 away

1.25

creates per match

1.13

1.90

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Southend

1.25

Doncaster

1.13

allows per match

Southend

1.90

Doncaster

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Southend or draw

61%

Southend or Doncaster

75%

Draw or Doncaster

64%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

17%

Doncaster wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

76%

Southend 2+ goals

42%

Southend 3+ goals

17%

Doncaster 1+ goals

78%

Doncaster 2+ goals

44%

Doncaster 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

48%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.25 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Southend defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southend scores more

36%

level

25%

Doncaster scores more

39%

Doncaster at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff