Doncaster 3–1 Southend: Result & Stats | League One

Doncaster

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Southend

1/28/2020

League One · Round 30The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Doncaster49%

×Draw25%

Southend27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.15

Doncaster

1.64

Southend

1.15

Doncaster creates 43% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 41 away

1.40

creates per match

1.07

1.23

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Doncaster

1.40

Southend

1.07

allows per match

Doncaster

1.23

Southend

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

73%

Doncaster or Southend

75%

Draw or Southend

51%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

26%

Southend wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

81%

Doncaster 2+ goals

49%

Doncaster 3+ goals

23%

Southend 1+ goals

68%

Southend 2+ goals

32%

Southend 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

65%

Southend (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Southend away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Southend defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Southend attack 1.07 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Doncaster scores more

49%

level

25%

Southend scores more

27%

Doncaster at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff