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Southend vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
G. Lloyd 52'
L. Sercombe 10' (pen)
10/17/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Southend37%
×Draw29%
Cheltenham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.16
Cheltenham
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 95 away

creates per match

Southend
0.94
Cheltenham
1.06

allows per match

Southend
1.13
Cheltenham
1.38

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Southend or draw
66%
Southend or Cheltenham
71%
Draw or Cheltenham
63%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
16%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
69%
Southend 2+ goals
32%
Southend 3+ goals
11%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
66%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
30%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
52%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.94 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Southend defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Southend scores more
37%
level
29%
Cheltenham scores more
34%

Southend at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
B. TozerCheltenhamCheltenham · D
7.9

Match Events

10'
L. SercombePenalty
52'
G. Lloyd↳ C. Hussey
56'
T. Egbri← K. Taylor
56'
A. Nathaniel-George← E. Acquah
67'
Jason Dimitriou
82'
A. May← G. Lloyd
83'
K. Coker← B. Goodship
83'
C. Thomas← E. Bonds
88'
L. Freestone← C. Raglan

Possession

46%Southend

Shots

2Southend

Pass accuracy

48%Southend

Statistics

SouthendCheltenham
Overview
46%Possession54%
2Total Shots9
1Corners6
18Fouls7
Shots
2Total Shots9
1On Target4
0Off Target3
1Blocked2
1Inside Box7
1Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
369Total Passes419
245Accurate Passes298
66%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Southend vs Cheltenham

Cheltenham beat Southend 2-0 in League Two on October 17, 2020.

Goals: L. Sercombe (10' pen), G. Lloyd (52').

Cheltenham controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 2.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea, Essex.