Cheltenham 1–0 Southend: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southend

C. Thomas 53' (pen)

3/2/2021

League Two · Round 33Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cheltenham47%

×Draw26%

Southend27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.03

Cheltenham

1.46

Southend

1.03

Cheltenham creates 42% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 31 away

1.49

creates per match

0.90

1.17

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.49

Southend

0.90

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.17

Southend

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

73%

Cheltenham or Southend

74%

Draw or Southend

53%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

23%

Southend wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

77%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

43%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

18%

Southend 1+ goals

64%

Southend 2+ goals

28%

Southend 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

64%

Southend (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Southend away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Southend defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Southend attack 0.90 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cheltenham scores more

47%

level

26%

Southend scores more

27%

Cheltenham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Tozer

Cheltenham · D

7.9

Match Events

53'

C. ThomasPenalty

60'

S. Akinola← J. Demetriou

60'

R. Hackett-Fairchild← E. Acquah

61'

N. Ferguson← R. Holmes

75'

A. Williams← A. May

76'

L. Sercombe← C. Wright

79'

K. Taylor← G. Halford

84'

B. Goodship← A. Nathaniel-George

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamSouthend

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots6

3Corners0

8Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots6

5On Target0

5Off Target4

5Blocked2

6Inside Box5

9Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

481Total Passes394

310Accurate Passes238

64%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Offsides4