Southend 2–3 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Southend

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Burton Albion

J. O'Toole 90+1' (OG)

S. Mantom 29'

J. Murphy 74'

R. Edwards 49'

L. Akins 5'

2/22/2020

League One · Round 35Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Southend37%

×Draw25%

Burton Albion38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.47

Southend

1.43

Burton Albion

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 176 away

1.27

creates per match

1.06

1.87

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Southend

1.27

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Southend

1.87

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Southend or draw

62%

Southend or Burton Albion

75%

Draw or Burton Albion

63%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

17%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

76%

Southend 2+ goals

42%

Southend 3+ goals

17%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

77%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

43%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

49%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Southend scores more

37%

level

25%

Burton Albion scores more

38%

Burton Albion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Murphy

Burton Albion · F

7.8

Match Events

5'

29'

49'

54'

59'

62'

N. Broadhead← O. Šarkić

69'

S. Barratt← S. Mantom

74'

J. Murphy↳ N. Broadhead

78'

J. Sbarra← R. Edwards

90'

Lucas Akins

90+1'

K. Wallace← S. Quinn

90+1'

J. O'TooleOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthendBurton

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots16

5Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots16

5On Target6

10Off Target7

3Blocked3

9Inside Box12

9Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

376Total Passes450

243Accurate Passes303

65%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2