Burton Albion 1–1 Southend: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southend

S. Fraser 49'

S. McLaughlin 21'

12/3/2019

League One · Round 18Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Burton Albion48%

×Draw25%

Southend27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.13

Burton Albion

1.59

Southend

1.13

Burton Albion creates 41% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 44 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

1.30

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Southend

0.95

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Southend

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

73%

Burton Albion or Southend

75%

Draw or Southend

52%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

25%

Southend wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

80%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

47%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

21%

Southend 1+ goals

68%

Southend 2+ goals

31%

Southend 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

64%

Southend (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Southend away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Southend defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Southend attack 0.95 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burton Albion scores more

48%

level

25%

Southend scores more

27%

Burton Albion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Fraser

Burton Albion · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

S. McLaughlin↳ I. Hutchinson

33'

35'

48'

49'

52'

55'

S. Humphrys← S. McLaughlin

65'

S. Cox← S. Mantom

76'

E. Kinali← B. Goodship

80'

R. Hutchinson← D. Templeton

81'

Jake Buxton

88'

K. Wallace← S. Quinn

90+2'

J. Sbarra← R. Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonSouthend

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots8

5Corners6

12Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots8

1On Target5

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

436Total Passes369

298Accurate Passes216

68%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2