Southampton W 0–3 Bristol City W: Result & Stats

Southampton W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bristol City W

12/8/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundSilverlake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Southampton W67%

×Draw18%

Bristol City W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southampton WExpected goals in this matchBristol City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.09

Southampton W

2.48

Bristol City W

1.09

Southampton W creates 128% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.71

creates per match

0.75

1.43

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Southampton W

2.71

Bristol City W

0.75

allows per match

Southampton W

1.43

Bristol City W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton W+0.00on par

Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton W ↓

Bristol City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Southampton W or draw

85%

Southampton W or Bristol City W

82%

Draw or Bristol City W

33%

Winning margin

Southampton W wins by 2+

45%

Bristol City W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Southampton W 1+ goals

92%

Southampton W 2+ goals

70%

Southampton W 3+ goals

44%

Bristol City W 1+ goals

66%

Bristol City W 2+ goals

30%

Bristol City W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Southampton W (draw refunded)

82%

Bristol City W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton W at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton W attack 2.71 + Bristol City W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.48

Bristol City W attack 0.75 + Southampton W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Southampton W scores more

67%

level

18%

Bristol City W scores more

15%

Southampton W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff