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Bristol City W vs Southampton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Bristol City W
Bristol City W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Southampton W
Southampton W
12/11/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundRobins High Performance Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bristol City W24%
×Draw20%
Southampton W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City W
1.45
Southampton W
2.28

Southampton W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bristol City W
2.00
Southampton W
2.56

allows per match

Bristol City W
2.00
Southampton W
0.89

finishing

Bristol City W+0.00on par
Southampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City W ↓

Southampton W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bristol City W or draw
44%
Bristol City W or Southampton W
80%
Draw or Southampton W
76%

Winning margin

Bristol City W wins by 2+
11%
Southampton W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Bristol City W 1+ goals
77%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
42%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
18%
Southampton W 1+ goals
90%
Southampton W 2+ goals
66%
Southampton W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Bristol City W (draw refunded)
30%
Southampton W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Southampton W away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City W attack 2.00 + Southampton W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Southampton W attack 2.56 + Bristol City W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bristol City W scores more
24%
level
20%
Southampton W scores more
56%

Southampton W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Bristol City W 2–0 Southampton W

Bristol City W beat Southampton W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Robins High Performance Centre in Failand, Somerset.