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Southampton vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Southampton
Southamptonadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
5/17/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsSt. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Southampton44%
×Draw27%
West Brom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.38
West Brom
1.05

Southampton creates 31% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 40 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.55
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Southampton
0.91
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Southampton+0.22scores more
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
71%
Southampton or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
56%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
21%
West Brom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
75%
Southampton 2+ goals
40%
Southampton 3+ goals
16%
West Brom 1+ goals
65%
West Brom 2+ goals
28%
West Brom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
61%
West Brom (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.55 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

West Brom attack 1.19 + Southampton defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Southampton scores more
44%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
29%

Southampton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southampton vs West Brom

Southampton beat West Brom 3-1 in Championship on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.