West Brom 1–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Southampton

J. Molumby 45'

C. Larin 90'

3/11/2026

Championship · Round 37The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

West Brom43%

×Draw27%

Southampton31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

West Brom

1.40

Southampton

1.14

West Brom creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.37

creates per match

1.50

0.77

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

West Brom

1.37

Southampton

1.50

allows per match

West Brom

0.77

Southampton

1.42

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

West Brom-0.11scores less

Southampton+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

69%

West Brom or Southampton

73%

Draw or Southampton

57%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

20%

Southampton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

41%

West Brom 3+ goals

17%

Southampton 1+ goals

68%

Southampton 2+ goals

32%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

58%

Southampton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.77 · 19 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.37 + Southampton defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Southampton attack 1.50 + West Brom defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Brom scores more

43%

level

27%

Southampton scores more

31%

West Brom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

D. Peretz

Southampton · G

7.6

Match Events

37'

T. Fellows← L. Scienza

45'

J. Molumby↳ D. Dike

46'

C. Larin← R. Stewart

50'

Jack Stephens

66'

S. Edozie← K. Matsuki

66'

C. Bragg← F. Downes

68'

Cameron Bragg

75'

Daniel Imray

77'

O. Bostock← J. Wallace

77'

A. Mowatt← J. Molumby

77'

J. Maja← D. Dike

83'

C. Archer← J. Bree

86'

Ousmane Diakité

87'

H. Whitwell← O. Diakite

90+2'

H. Mustapha← A. Heggebo

90'

C. Larin↳ S. Edozie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestSouthampton

Overview

34%Possession66%

13Total Shots12

1.55Expected Goals (xG)1.09

5Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target4

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

311Total Passes618

228Accurate Passes535

73%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Match Recap: West Brom vs Southampton

West Brom and Southampton drew 1-1 in Championship on March 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Molumby (45'), C. Larin (90').

Southampton controlled possession (66%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.

West Brom vs Southampton — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: West Brom vs Southampton