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Southampton vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Southampton
Southampton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
9/14/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Southampton52%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.52
Portsmouth
0.89

Southampton creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.50
Portsmouth
0.85

allows per match

Southampton
0.93
Portsmouth
1.53

finishing

Southampton+0.18scores more
Portsmouth+0.21scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
78%
Southampton or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
48%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
27%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
78%
Southampton 2+ goals
45%
Southampton 3+ goals
20%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
59%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
22%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
70%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.93 · 19 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.53 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.50 + Portsmouth defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Portsmouth attack 0.85 + Southampton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Southampton scores more
52%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
22%

Southampton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. DozzellPortsmouthPortsmouth · M
7.5

Match Events

26'
B. Killip← N. Schmid
45+1'
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
45'
Zak Swanson
46'
J. Williams← C. Ogilvie
47'
Jack Stephens
65'
Flynn Downes
68'
Mads Roerslev
73'
John Swift
74'
C. Jander← F. Downes
74'
A. Armstrong← C. Archer
75'
R. Stewart← F. Azaz
76'
T. Devlin← A. Segecic
76'
L. Le Roux← J. Swift
82'
L. Scienza← T. Fellows
82'
J. Robinson← R. Fraser

Possession

60%Southampton

Shots

9Southampton

Pass accuracy

52%Southampton

Statistics

SouthamptonPortsmouth
Overview
60%Possession40%
9Total Shots10
1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.94
7Corners5
16Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots10
1On Target1
3Off Target7
5Blocked2
6Inside Box5
3Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
437Total Passes293
343Accurate Passes210
78%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
0.88Goals Prevented0.88
Discipline
16Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Southampton vs Portsmouth

Southampton and Portsmouth drew 0-0 in Championship on September 14, 2025.

Southampton controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton.