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Portsmouth vs Southampton — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Southampton
Southampton
E. Adams 77'
L. Scienza 57'
1/25/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Portsmouth43%
×Draw26%
Southampton31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.48
Southampton
1.21

Portsmouth creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.47
Southampton
1.30

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.11
Southampton
1.49

finishing

Portsmouth-0.36scores less
Southampton+0.02on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
69%
Portsmouth or Southampton
74%
Draw or Southampton
57%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
21%
Southampton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
77%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
43%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%
Southampton 1+ goals
70%
Southampton 2+ goals
34%
Southampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
58%
Southampton (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.47 + Southampton defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Southampton attack 1.30 + Portsmouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portsmouth scores more
43%
level
26%
Southampton scores more
31%

Portsmouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
E. AdamsPortsmouthPortsmouth · M
8.7

Match Events

57'
L. Scienza↳ F. Azaz
63'
S. Charles← F. Azaz
63'
T. Fellows← K. Matsuki
66'
J. Williams← I. Bowat
67'
J. Robinson← L. Scienza
68'
R. Stewart← A. Armstrong
70'
Zak Swanson
70'
Flynn Downes
71'
M. Pack← A. Dozzell
71'
K. Anderson← C. Chaplin
77'
E. Adams
82'
Ebou Adams

Possession

55%Portsmouth

Shots

14Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

53%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthSouthampton
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots6
1.66Expected Goals (xG)1.18
4Corners2
9Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots6
3On Target4
6Off Target1
5Blocked1
8Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
370Total Passes309
253Accurate Passes187
68%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Southampton

Portsmouth and Southampton drew 1-1 in Championship on January 25, 2026.

Goals: L. Scienza (57'), E. Adams (77').

Portsmouth controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.