Southampton 1–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

A. Armstrong 12'

E. Latte Lath 90'

3/29/2024

Championship · Round 39St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Southampton42%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.21

Southampton

1.43

Middlesbrough

1.21

Southampton creates 18% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

1.55

creates per match

1.51

0.91

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Southampton

1.55

Middlesbrough

1.51

allows per match

Southampton

0.91

Middlesbrough

1.31

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.22scores more

Middlesbrough-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

68%

Southampton or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

58%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

20%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

76%

Southampton 2+ goals

42%

Southampton 3+ goals

17%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

70%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

34%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

57%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.31 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.55 + Middlesbrough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Middlesbrough attack 1.51 + Southampton defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Southampton scores more

42%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

32%

Southampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

L. Engel

Middlesbrough · D

8.3

Match Events

12'

34'

50'

50'

62'

63'

R. Fraser← K. Sulemana

63'

D. Brooks← C. Adams

70'

Lewis O'Brien

75'

S. Silvera← S. Greenwood

81'

A. Gilbert← I. Jones

83'

Stuart Armstrong

85'

S. Mara← A. Armstrong

90+1'

J. Aribo← S. Armstrong

90+1'

S. Edozie← W. Smallbone

90+2'

L. Thomas← F. Azaz

90'

E. Latte Lath↳ A. Gilbert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonMiddlesbrough

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots8

2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.51

8Corners5

5Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target3

4Off Target1

4Blocked4

13Inside Box8

Passing

62%Possession38%

680Total Passes407

615Accurate Passes350

90%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides4