Middlesbrough 4–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southampton

A. Browne 76'

M. Whittaker 66', 54'

S. Silvera 61'

1/4/2026

Championship · Round 26Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Middlesbrough50%

×Draw26%

Southampton24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.00

Middlesbrough

1.55

Southampton

1.00

Middlesbrough creates 55% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.63

creates per match

1.31

0.70

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.63

Southampton

1.31

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.70

Southampton

1.48

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.01on par

Southampton+0.02on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

76%

Middlesbrough or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

50%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

26%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

46%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

20%

Southampton 1+ goals

63%

Southampton 2+ goals

26%

Southampton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

67%

Southampton (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 21 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.63 + Southampton defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Southampton attack 1.31 + Middlesbrough defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

50%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

24%

Middlesbrough at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Whittaker

Middlesbrough · M

9.2

Match Events

6'

A. Browne← A. Bangura

54'

M. Whittaker↳ M. Targett

61'

C. Bragg← C. Jander

61'

S. Silvera↳ L. Ayling

64'

Ryan Manning

66'

M. Whittaker

68'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

74'

Welington← R. Manning

74'

E. Jelert← T. Fellows

74'

C. Archer← A. Armstrong

76'

A. Browne

81'

Joshua Quarshie

82'

A. Gilbert← D. Burgzorg

85'

R. Stewart← J. Quarshie

90'

M. Hamilton← H. Hackney

90'

S. Nypan← M. Whittaker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughSouthampton

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots16

2.27Expected Goals (xG)1.12

11Corners5

7Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots16

5On Target5

9Off Target7

8Blocked4

14Inside Box11

8Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

484Total Passes384

417Accurate Passes314

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-1.91Goals Prevented-1.91

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1