Southampton 3–1 Leeds: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Leeds

A. Armstrong 35', 2'

W. Smallbone 31'

P. Struijk 58'

9/30/2023

Championship · Round 9St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Southampton39%

×Draw27%

Leeds34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.22

Southampton

1.32

Leeds

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

1.52

creates per match

1.51

0.92

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Southampton

1.52

Leeds

1.51

allows per match

Southampton

0.92

Leeds

1.13

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.29scores more

Leeds+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

66%

Southampton or Leeds

73%

Draw or Leeds

61%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

18%

Leeds wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

73%

Southampton 2+ goals

38%

Southampton 3+ goals

15%

Leeds 1+ goals

70%

Leeds 2+ goals

34%

Leeds 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

53%

Leeds (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 21 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.52 + Leeds defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Leeds attack 1.51 + Southampton defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southampton scores more

39%

level

27%

Leeds scores more

34%

Southampton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Armstrong

Southampton · F

8.5

Match Events

2'

A. Armstrong↳ K. Walker-Peters

12'

Adam Armstrong

18'

Will Smallbone

31'

W. Smallbone↳ K. Sulemana

33'

Glen Kamara

35'

A. Armstrong↳ K. Sulemana

37'

Jan Bednarek

58'

P. Struijk

59'

R. Fraser← K. Sulemana

69'

S. Charles← W. Smallbone

69'

C. Adams← C. Alcaraz

73'

J. Anthony← C. Summerville

73'

A. Gray← G. Kamara

76'

Shea Charles

81'

P. Bamford← D. James

85'

J. Aribo← A. Armstrong

85'

J. Bree← S. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonLeeds

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots15

1.48Expected Goals (xG)0.92

5Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots15

5On Target5

1Off Target5

4Blocked5

8Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

442Total Passes492

373Accurate Passes420

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3