Southampton 2–2 Leeds: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Leeds

K. Walker-Peters 81'

J. Aribo 72'

Rodrigo 60', 46'

8/13/2022

Premier League · Round 2St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Southampton35%

×Draw23%

Leeds42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.72

Southampton

1.55

Leeds

1.72

Leeds creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

1.28

creates per match

1.17

2.28

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Southampton

1.28

Leeds

1.17

allows per match

Southampton

2.28

Leeds

1.82

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.29scores more

Leeds-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

58%

Southampton or Leeds

77%

Draw or Leeds

65%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

17%

Leeds wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

79%

Southampton 2+ goals

46%

Southampton 3+ goals

20%

Leeds 1+ goals

82%

Leeds 2+ goals

51%

Leeds 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

45%

Leeds (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 7 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.82 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.28 + Leeds defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.55

Leeds attack 1.17 + Southampton defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Southampton scores more

35%

level

23%

Leeds scores more

42%

Leeds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Rodrigo

Leeds · M

8.3

Match Events

16'

Diego LlorenteCard reviewed

28'

43'

45'

46'

60'

61'

A. Armstrong← M. Elyounoussi

62'

J. Aribo← S. Armstrong

70'

S. Mara← J. Bednarek

72'

J. Aribo↳ A. Armstrong

78'

Mohammed Salisu

81'

K. Walker-Peters↳ S. Mara

84'

L. Sinisterra← D. James

84'

M. Klich← J. Harrison

88'

A. Forshaw← Marc Roca

90+3'

Brenden Aaronson

90+1'

J. Stephens← M. Djenepo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonLeeds

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots13

2Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target5

7Off Target4

3Blocked4

9Inside Box11

5Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

332Total Passes454

232Accurate Passes336

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Southampton vs Leeds

Southampton and Leeds drew 2-2 in Premier League on August 13, 2022.

Goals: Rodrigo (46', 60'), J. Aribo (72'), K. Walker-Peters (81').

Leeds controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.

Southampton vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Southampton vs Leeds