Southampton 1–0 Leeds: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leeds

A. Broja 53'

10/16/2021

Premier League · Round 8St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton35%

×Draw24%

Leeds41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.66

Southampton

1.51

Leeds

1.66

Leeds creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

1.19

creates per match

1.15

2.17

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Southampton

1.19

Leeds

1.15

allows per match

Southampton

2.17

Leeds

1.83

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.19scores more

Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

59%

Southampton or Leeds

76%

Draw or Leeds

65%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

17%

Leeds wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

78%

Southampton 2+ goals

44%

Southampton 3+ goals

19%

Leeds 1+ goals

81%

Leeds 2+ goals

49%

Leeds 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

46%

Leeds (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 8 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.19 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Leeds attack 1.15 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southampton scores more

35%

level

24%

Leeds scores more

41%

Leeds at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Redmond

Southampton · F

8.3

Match Events

47'

Tyler Roberts

53'

A. Broja↳ N. Redmond

58'

Pascal Struijk

59'

S. Armstrong← M. Djenepo

64'

A. Forshaw← Rodrigo

70'

Diego Llorente

75'

Jan Bednarek

77'

J. Gelhardt← M. Klich

81'

T. Walcott← A. Broja

81'

C. Summerville← T. Roberts

83'

Alex McCarthy

90+5'

N. Tella← M. Elyounoussi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonLeeds

Overview

45%Possession55%

19Total Shots3

8Corners1

16Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots3

5On Target0

12Off Target2

2Blocked1

8Inside Box2

11Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

362Total Passes452

276Accurate Passes347

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2