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Southampton vs Derby — Championship 2025

Southampton
Southampton
Preview
15:00
Derby
Derby
11/21/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16
Big match
52%
Southampton
model favours
52%25%23%

Southampton score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Southampton52%
×Draw25%
Derby23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.64
Derby
1.00

Southampton creates 64% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.60
Derby
1.04

allows per match

Southampton
0.96
Derby
1.68

finishing

Southampton-0.49scores less
Derby+0.16scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
77%
Southampton or Derby
75%
Draw or Derby
48%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
28%
Derby wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
81%
Southampton 2+ goals
49%
Southampton 3+ goals
23%
Derby 1+ goals
63%
Derby 2+ goals
26%
Derby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
69%
Derby (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

Derby away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.60 + Derby defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Derby attack 1.04 + Southampton defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Southampton scores more
52%
level
25%
Derby scores more
23%

Southampton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 12 games running
  • 81% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Southampton win just 29% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Southampton
Possession-dominant
Derby
Balanced
59%Possession45%
85%Pass accuracy74%
14.6Shots10.1
1.61xGBiggest gap1.05
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SouthamptonDerby

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Southampton
3
Draws
0
Derby
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 80%
2–11–12–22–24–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Southampton
DDWD
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southampton vs Derby — Match Preview

Southampton face Derby on November 21, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.