Southampton vs Derby — Championship 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
Southampton47%
Derby26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Southampton creates 44% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Southampton ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Southampton at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.03 · 13 matches
Derby away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Southampton attack 1.53 + Derby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44
Derby attack 0.98 + Southampton defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Southampton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Coventry
Ipswich
MillwallSouthampton
Middlesbrough
Hull City
WrexhamDerby
Norwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield Utd
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke City
Portsmouth
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford United
Sheffield WednesdayIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Southampton host Derby on Saturday, 18 February 2012 at 15:00. The match is part of the Championship 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Southampton vs Derby
Southampton beat Derby 4-0 in Championship on February 18, 2012.
Goals: J. Hooiveld (15'), A. Martin (57'), A. Lallana (65'), T. Lee (75').
The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium.