Southampton 2–1 Derby: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Derby

T. Harwood-Bellis 69'

L. Scienza 62'

C. Morris 38'

4/11/2026

Championship · Round 42St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Southampton54%

×Draw24%

Derby22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.02

Southampton

1.72

Derby

1.02

Southampton creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 38 away

1.83

creates per match

1.21

0.83

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Southampton

1.83

Derby

1.21

allows per match

Southampton

0.83

Derby

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

78%

Southampton or Derby

76%

Draw or Derby

46%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

29%

Derby wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

82%

Southampton 2+ goals

51%

Southampton 3+ goals

25%

Derby 1+ goals

64%

Derby 2+ goals

27%

Derby 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

71%

Derby (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Derby away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.83 + Derby defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Derby attack 1.21 + Southampton defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Southampton scores more

54%

level

24%

Derby scores more

22%

Southampton at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

T. Harwood-Bellis

Southampton · D

8.6

Match Events

9'

38'

53'

55'

62'

64'

64'

K. Matsuki← T. Fellows

66'

O. Eames← J. Banel

67'

C. Forsyth← M. Johnston

67'

S. Langas← D. Ozoh

69'

T. Harwood-Bellis↳ R. Manning

75'

S. Charles← F. Azaz

75'

S. Edozie← L. Scienza

84'

L. Salvesen← L. Travis

87'

N. Wood← J. Bree

90+3'

Cyle Larin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonDerby

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots9

1.73Expected Goals (xG)0.91

6Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target4

7Off Target2

3Blocked3

12Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

462Total Passes289

384Accurate Passes213

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.86Goals Prevented-0.86

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1