Southampton 1–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Crystal Palace

Oriol Romeu 9'

W. Zaha 90+2'

E. Eze 60'

4/30/2022

Premier League · Round 35St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Southampton27%

×Draw24%

Crystal Palace48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.66

Southampton

1.19

Crystal Palace

1.66

Crystal Palace creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

1.13

creates per match

1.19

2.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Southampton

1.13

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Southampton

2.13

Crystal Palace

1.26

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.37scores more

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

52%

Southampton or Crystal Palace

76%

Draw or Crystal Palace

73%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

11%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

70%

Southampton 2+ goals

33%

Southampton 3+ goals

12%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

81%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

49%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

36%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.13 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Southampton defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Southampton scores more

27%

level

24%

Crystal Palace scores more

48%

Crystal Palace at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Oriol Romeu

Southampton · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

Oriol Romeu↳ J. Ward-Prowse

16'

16'

38'

45+3'

60'

E. Eze↳ N. Clyne

64'

W. Zaha← J. Mateta

65'

A. Broja← S. Long

65'

S. Armstrong← C. Adams

74'

M. Olise← J. Schlupp

80'

M. Elyounoussi← N. Tella

84'

W. Hughes← E. Eze

90+2'

W. Zaha↳ J. McArthur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonCrystal

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots14

6Corners7

13Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target5

3Off Target3

2Blocked6

5Inside Box11

3Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

326Total Passes529

221Accurate Passes436

68%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4