Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Southampton

O. Édouard 38'

10/29/2022

Premier League · Round 14Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Crystal Palace42%

×Draw26%

Southampton31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Crystal Palace

1.40

Southampton

1.17

Crystal Palace creates 20% more chances

Season form · 206 home / 168 away

1.15

creates per match

1.08

1.25

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.15

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.25

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

69%

Crystal Palace or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

58%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

20%

Southampton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Southampton 1+ goals

69%

Southampton 2+ goals

33%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

57%

Southampton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 206 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.15 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Southampton attack 1.08 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

42%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

31%

Crystal Palace at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Guaita

Crystal Palace · G

8.0

Match Events

31'

Wilfried Zaha

31'

Lyanco

38'

O. Édouard↳ T. Mitchell

40'

Mohammed Salisu

45'

Mohamed Elyounoussi

46'

A. Maitland-Niles← I. Diallo

61'

Odsonne Édouard

63'

J. Ayew← E. Eze

74'

S. Edozie← M. Elyounoussi

74'

M. Djenepo← R. Perraud

75'

W. Hughes← O. Édouard

82'

Tyrick Mitchell

86'

J. Riedewald← M. Olise

86'

S. Mara← S. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalSouthampton

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots14

8Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots14

3On Target4

4Off Target6

5Blocked4

4Inside Box10

8Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

402Total Passes497

290Accurate Passes404

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3