Southampton 2–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Coventry

C. Adams 38'

K. Walker-Peters 18'

J. Bidwell 68'

4/9/2024

Championship · Round 42St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Southampton41%

×Draw26%

Coventry32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.18

Southampton

1.38

Coventry

1.18

Southampton creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

1.56

creates per match

1.39

0.97

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Southampton

1.56

Coventry

1.39

allows per match

Southampton

0.97

Coventry

1.19

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Southampton+0.26scores more

Coventry-0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

68%

Southampton or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

59%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

19%

Coventry wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

75%

Southampton 2+ goals

40%

Southampton 3+ goals

16%

Coventry 1+ goals

69%

Coventry 2+ goals

33%

Coventry 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

56%

Coventry (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.56 + Coventry defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Coventry attack 1.39 + Southampton defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southampton scores more

41%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

32%

Southampton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Adams

Southampton · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

Joel Latibeaudiere

18'

K. Walker-Peters↳ J. Stephens

38'

C. Adams

40'

Josh Eccles

42'

Flynn Downes

50'

Fábio Tavares← M. van Ewijk

65'

R. Fraser← D. Brooks

68'

J. Bidwell↳ Fábio Tavares

72'

V. Torp← J. Eccles

75'

S. Mara← A. Armstrong

81'

J. Dasilva← J. Bidwell

81'

L. Binks← L. Kitching

81'

K. Palmer← C. OHare

83'

S. Armstrong← J. Aribo

84'

S. Charles← W. Smallbone

84'

J. Rothwell← C. Adams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonCoventry

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots9

1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.50

6Corners8

15Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target2

3Off Target3

4Blocked4

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

625Total Passes406

560Accurate Passes330

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Southampton vs Coventry

Southampton beat Coventry 2-1 in Championship on April 9, 2024.

Goals: K. Walker-Peters (18'), C. Adams (38'), J. Bidwell (68').

Southampton controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.

Southampton vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Southampton vs Coventry