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Coventry vs Southampton — Championship 2025

Coventry
Coventry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Southampton
Southampton
H. Wright 50'
S. Edozie 67'
12/13/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Coventry43%
×Draw25%
Southampton33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.57
Southampton
1.35

Coventry creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.68
Southampton
1.38

allows per match

Coventry
1.33
Southampton
1.46

finishing

Coventry+0.14scores more
Southampton+0.12scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
67%
Coventry or Southampton
75%
Draw or Southampton
57%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
21%
Southampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
79%
Coventry 2+ goals
46%
Coventry 3+ goals
21%
Southampton 1+ goals
74%
Southampton 2+ goals
39%
Southampton 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
56%
Southampton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.68 + Southampton defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Southampton attack 1.38 + Coventry defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coventry scores more
43%
level
25%
Southampton scores more
33%

Coventry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. O'HareCoventryCoventry · F
7.7

Match Events

37'
Kyle Walker-Peters
50'
H. Wright↳ C. O'Hare
60'
S. Edozie← C. Adams
60'
R. Fraser← S. Charles
67'
S. Edozie↳ A. Armstrong
70'
Jan Bednarek
81'
K. Palmer← C. OHare
81'
J. Eccles← J. Allen
81'
J. Dasilva← J. Bidwell
90+1'
Kasey Palmer
90+5'
Joe Aribo
90'
C. Alcaraz← W. Smallbone
90'
S. Mara← A. Armstrong

Possession

28%Coventry

Shots

11Coventry

Pass accuracy

47%Coventry

Statistics

CoventrySouthampton
Overview
28%Possession72%
11Total Shots12
0.51Expected Goals (xG)0.83
3Corners9
9Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots12
4On Target3
5Off Target6
2Blocked3
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
28%Possession72%
296Total Passes763
238Accurate Passes685
80%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Championship: Coventry 1–1 Southampton

Coventry and Southampton drew 1-1 in Championship on December 13, 2023.

Goals: H. Wright (50'), S. Edozie (67').

Southampton controlled possession (72%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.